The 2 Types of Independents

Note: This is Part 4 of my Political Typology series.

• Part 1 is The 4 Types of Democrats.
• Part 2 is The 4 Types of Republicans.
• Part 3 is The 8 Lanes in US Politics.

Summary:

There are two possible lanes for Independents to win statewide and national elections:

1. Moderate Independent:
   • Unify the two moderate Democratic + two moderate Republican lanes.
2. Populist Independent:
   • Unify the two populist Democratic + two populist Republican lanes.

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Background:

This is based on my prior analyses of The 4 Types of Democrats and The 4 Types of Republicans.

• 4 Types of Democrats + 4 Types of Republicans = The 8 Lanes In US Politics:

Most modern US politicians assume that they have to run with one of the two Parties.

• Even Independents like Bernie Sanders first run in their Party primary before caucusing as an Independent.
• This post will analyze alternate lanes to winning elections as an Independent.

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The Two Types of Independents:

1. The Moderate Independent Lane:

• Conventional wisdom assumes that this would be the best lane for an Independent.
  • E Republicans have been underserved by Trump-era Republicans.
    • Es tend to be economically conservative + socially liberal.
• But Moderates (especially Democrats) are more pragmatic and are thus usually party loyalists.
  • B Democrats are the traditional base of the Democratic party.
    • Bs will be among the last to abandon the two-party system.

2024 Candidates:

• Andrew Yang:
  • Lane #1: C → B → E → N
    • Yang got blocked by Biden from going C → B in 2020.
  • Lane #2: C → N → E → B
    • Yang could go All-Populist first and then crossover into the Moderate Establishment.
• Dwayne Johnson:
  • The Rock could win the Moderate AND Democratic lanes.
    • He can play in all 8 quadrants and seriously complete in the left 6.
    • But 2024 is probably the wrong race for him.
      • Biden/Harris dominate the B lane, which is part of his future base.
  • Lane #1 (Moderate): C → N → E → B
    • The Rock is my favorite long-term candidate for the Moderate Lane.
      • He could win the four middle quadrants in a polarized 2028.
  • Lane #2 (Democrat): C → D → B → A
    • Dwayne Johnson could consolidate the 4 Types of Democrats in an open primary.
• Mark Cuban:
  • Lane #1: N → E → C → B
    • Cuban’s biggest challenge with this lane would be winning over B Democrats.
      • Cuban could go D instead of B for his 4th quadrant in this Lane.
  • Lane #2: N → C → E → B
    • Cuban could go Independent from the start by first consolidating the Moderate Populists.
      • Trump’s ability to crossover to C Democrats was why he won in 2016.
        • Cuban would have a similar appeal to Cs.
  • Lane #3: N → E → S → W
    • Cuban also has the potential to consolidate the 4 Types of Republicans.
      • This is Cuban’s clearest path to the Presidency through the Electoral College.
        • This Lane would work best against an Establishment Conservative.
          • Watch out Ted Cruz.
      • This is the classic lane for an outsider businessman.
        • Donald Trump still holds power over this Lane.
          • Ivanka would also have a strong shot at this Lane.
          • Cuban would need a zero-Trump election to go national with this Lane.

2. The Populist Independent Lane:

• This is the lane Donald Trump should have dominated in 2020.
  • Trump’s grift was promising to be a Populist and then being a classic Republican as President.
    • A true Populist would fight the leadership of both parties and form their own Independent base.

2024 Candidates:

• Tucker Carlson:
  • Tucker already has the inside lane on S → N if no Trumps run in 2024.
    • Option 1: Crossover to the Populist Left (S → N → C → D).
    • Option 2: Go S  → N  → W  → E and consolidate the 4 Types of Republicans.
• Kanye West:
  • Kanye’s 2020 looked like Trump’s 2000.
    • Both tested the waters but couldn’t find a lane so they quit early.
  • Kanye’s path in 2024 and beyond would need to start with consolidating the Populist Left.
    • His national range would depend on his ability to crossover to the Populist Right.
      • Lane: C → D → N → S
• Dave Portnoy:
  • Portnoy is used to playing Counter against the media Establishment.
    • His fundraising for the Barstool Fund and Emergency Press Conferences in defense of small business owners during COVID show he could be a political force if he wants to run.
      • Lane: N → C → S → D

3. All-Establishment Lane?

• I don’t think we’ll ever see a true top vs. bottom election.
  • The bottom would win every time.
    • Populists outnumber the Establishment.
      • The only lanes for the Establishment go through the two parties.

Advice: Start Small

The Electoral College is extremely biased towards a two-party system.

• Ross Perot got 19% of the vote in 1992 but won 0 Electoral College votes.

These lanes will work now in key polarized local elections.

• The key is picking a district where the majority of voters are in your base.

These lanes work best when running against two extreme Establishment candidates.

• An Independent’s base is people who wish they could vote None of the Above.
  • The best Independents give a voice to people who politicians usually ignore.

Calling All Independents:

• If you or anyone you know is considering running for office as an Independent, please let me know.
  • Tweet or DM me @NeilThanedar to start a conversation.
• Recruiting Independents Into Politics is on my list of the World’s Biggest Problems.