The 4 Types of Republicans

Note: This is Part 2 of my Political Typology series.

My regional model for Republicans:

E = Moderate Establishment
- Archetype: East
  - US Examples: VA, NC, SC
  - MI Examples: Oakland, Livingston
- Frontrunners: Nikki Haley, Tim Scott, Mike Pence
- Outside Shot: Ivanka Trump
- Also Rans: Chris Christie, Marco Rubio, Larry Hogan, Rick Scott
W = Conservative Establishment
- Archetype: West
  - US Examples: UT, NE, KS
  - MI Examples: Kent, Ottawa
- Frontrunners: Ted Cruz, Tom Cotton
- Outside Shot: Mitt Romney
- Also Rans: Mike Pompeo, Mike Lee
S = Conservative Populist
- Archetype: South
  - US Examples: AL, TN, AR
  - MI Examples: Macomb, St. Clair
- Frontrunners: Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis
- Outside Shot: Tucker Carlson, Vivek Ramaswamy, Donald Trump Jr.
- Also Rans: Greg Abbott, Josh Hawley, Dan Crenshaw
N = Moderate Populist
- Archetype: North
  - US Examples: OH, IN, IA
  - MI Examples: Genesee, Upper Peninsula
- Frontrunners: Kristi Noem, Elise Stefanik
- Outside Shot: Doug Burgum, John James
- Also Rans: Mike DeWine, Ben Sasse

The political and media establishment chronically underrepresent the anti-establishment (populist) quadrants in both parties.

Donald Trump won in 2016 because he focused on the anti-establishment quadrants across both parties.
- Trump first won over the Republican S → N lanes.
  - Then he crossed-over to the Democratic C (moderate anti-establishment) lane.
  - The promise and delivery of conservative judges won over the Republican W lane.
Joe Biden won in 2020 because he won back the Democratic C quadrant and reunified the 4 Types of Democrats.

Donald J. Trump enters 2024 as the frontrunner for the Republican nomination:
- He's still the favorite in his top three lanes: S → N → W
  - Jr. could copy his dad's lane, but he would be worse at it in every quadrant.
  - Ivanka's lane would be the opposite: E → W → N → S.
    - Ivanka Trump could powerfully unify all four Republican quadrants through a combination of her and her father's lanes.
The other Republican frontrunners are all currently limited to 1-2 lanes.
- Establishment Lanes:
  - Pence: E → W
  - Cruz: W → S?
  - Haley: E → W?
  - Scott: E → W?
- Populist Lanes:
  - DeSantis: S → W
  - Carlson: S → N
  - Noem: N → W
  - Hawley: N → S

This is Part 2 of my Political Typology series.

Tweet at me @neilthanedar if you want to riff and refine on these ideas!

Published by Neil Thanedar