The 4 Types of Republicans

Note: This is Part 2 of my Political Typology series.

• Part 1 is The 4 Types of Democrats.
• Part 3 is The 8 Lanes in US Politics.
• Part 4 is The 2 Types of Independents.

Contents:

• Summary
• Chart
• Map
• Legend
• Analysis
• Projections

Summary:

My regional model for Republicans:

• East = Moderate Establishment
• West = Conservative Establishment
• South = Conservative Populist
• North = Moderate Populist

Chart:

Map:

Legend:

• E = Moderate Establishment
  • Archetype: East
    • US Examples: VA, NC, SC
    • MI Examples: Oakland, Livingston
  • Frontrunners: Mike Pence, Nikki Haley, Tim Scott
  • Rising Stars: Ivanka Trump
  • Also Rans: Marco Rubio, Larry Hogan, Rick Scott
• W = Conservative Establishment
  • Archetype: West
    • US Examples: UT, NE, KS
    • MI Examples: Kent, Ottawa
  • Frontrunners: Ted Cruz, Tom Cotton
  • Rising Stars: Mike Pompeo
  • Also Rans: Mike Lee
• S = Conservative Populist
  • Archetype: South
    • US Examples: AL, TN, AR
    • MI Examples: Macomb, St. Clair
  • Frontrunners: Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis
  • Rising Stars: Tucker Carlson, Donald Trump Jr.
  • Also Rans: Greg Abbott , Dan Crenshaw
• N = Moderate Populist
  • Archetype: North
    • US Examples: OH, IN, IA
    • MI Examples: Genesee, Upper Peninsula
  • Frontrunners: Kristi Noem, Josh Hawley
  • Rising Stars: John James
  • Also Rans: Mike DeWine, Ben Sasse

Analysis:

The political and media establishment chronically underrepresent the anti-establishment (populist) quadrants in both parties.

• Donald Trump won in 2016 because he focused on the anti-establishment quadrants across both parties.
  • Trump first won over the Republican S → N lanes.
    • Then he crossed-over to the Democratic C (moderate anti-establishment) lane.
    • The promise and delivery of conservative judges won over the Republican W lane.
• Joe Biden won in 2020 because he won back the Democratic C quadrant and reunified the 4 Types of Democrats.

Projections:

• Donald J. Trump enters 2024 as the frontrunner for the Republican nomination:
  • He’s still the favorite in his top three lanes: S → N → W
    • Jr. could copy his dad’s lane, but he would be worse at it in every quadrant.
    • Ivanka’s lane would be the opposite: E → W → N → S.
      • Ivanka Trump could powerfully unify all four Republican quadrants through a combination of her and her father’s lanes.
• The other Republican frontrunners are all currently limited to 1-2 lanes.
  • Establishment Lanes:
    • Pence: E → W
    • Cruz: W → S?
    • Haley: E → W?
    • Scott: E → W?
  • Populist Lanes:
    • DeSantis: S → W
    • Carlson: S → N
    • Noem: N → W
    • Hawley: N → S

Tweet at me @neilthanedar if you want to riff and refine on these ideas!