The 4 Types of Republicans

Note: This is Part 2 of my political typology for US Politics. Part 1 is The 4 Types of Democrats. Part 3 is The 8 Lanes in US Politics. Part 4 is The 2 Types of Independents.

Summary:

My regional model for Republicans:

  • East = Moderate Establishment
  • West = Conservative Establishment
  • South = Conservative Populist
  • North = Moderate Populist

Political Typology:

  • E = Moderate Establishment
    • Archetype: East
      • US Examples: VA, NC, SC
      • MI Examples: Oakland, Livingston
    • Frontrunners: Mike Pence, Nikki Haley
    • Rising Stars: Ivanka Trump, Tim Scott
    • Also Rans: Larry Hogan, Marco Rubio, Rick Scott
  • W = Conservative Establishment
    • Archetype: West
      • US Examples: UT, NE, KS
      • MI Examples: Kent, Ottawa
    • Frontrunners: Ted Cruz, Tom Cotton
    • Rising Stars: Kristi Noem, Mike Pompeo
    • Also Rans: Mike Lee
  • S = Conservative Populist
    • Archetype: South
      • US Examples: AL, TN, AR
      • MI Examples: Macomb, St. Clair
    • Frontrunners: Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis
    • Rising Stars: Donald Trump Jr., Tucker Carlson
    • Also Rans: Greg Abbott , Dan Crenshaw
  • N = Moderate Populist
    • Archetype: North
      • US Examples: OH, IN, IA
      • MI Examples: Genesee (outside Flint), Upper Peninsula
    • Frontrunners: Josh Hawley
    • Rising Stars: John James
    • Also Rans: Mike DeWine, Ben Sasse

2016-2020 Analysis:

The political and media establishment chronically underrepresent the anti-establishment (populist) quadrants in both parties.

  • Donald Trump won in 2016 because he focused on the anti-establishment quadrants across both parties.
    • Trump first won over the Republican S → N lanes.
      • Then he crossed-over to the Democratic C (moderate anti-establishment) lane.
      • The promise and delivery of conservative judges won over the Republican W lane.
  • Joe Biden won in 2020 because he won back the Democratic C quadrant and reunified the 4 Types of Democrats.

2024 Lanes:

  • Donald J. Trump enters 2024 as the frontrunner for the Republican nomination:
    • He’s still the favorite in his top three lanes: S → N → W
      • Jr. could copy his dad’s lane, but he would be worse at it in every quadrant.
      • Ivanka’s lane would be the opposite: E → W → N → S.
        • Ivanka Trump could powerfully unify all four Republican quadrants through a combination of her and her father’s lanes.
  • The other Republican frontrunners are all currently limited to 1-2 lanes.
    • Establishment Lanes:
      • Cotton: W → E?
      • Cruz: W → S?
      • Haley: E → W?
      • Rubio: E
    • Populist Lanes:
      • Carlson: S → N
      • Hawley: N → S
      • DeSantis: S → W
      • James: N → W

Tweet at me @neilthanedar if you want to riff and refine on these ideas!

Published by Neil Thanedar

Neil Thanedar is a scientist, entrepreneur, philanthropist, and activist. He is the founder & CEO of Air to All, a nonprofit medical device startup designing low-cost respirators and ventilators for COVID-19 and beyond. He is also the co-founder and CEO of Labdoor, a consumer watchdog that independently tests and ranks supplements and other health products for its 20M+ users. He was previously co-founder and President of Avomeen Analytical Services, a product development and testing lab acquired for $30M+ in 2016. He has also served as Executive Director of The Detroit Partnership and Senior Advisor to his father Shri Thanedar in his campaigns for Governor and State Representative in Michigan. He received his BBA (Entrepreneurship) and BS (Cellular & Molecular Biology) from the University of Michigan in 2010. Neil lives in Michigan with his wife Shoua, sons Kai (3) and Ajay (1), and dogs Zeus (12) and Pluto (11). He is also a (very) amateur hockey player and drummer.