The 8 Lanes in US Politics

This is Part 3 of my political typology for US Politics.

Contents:

Summary:

4 Types of Democrats + 4 Types of Republicans = The 8 Lanes in US Politics.

  • Every good politician has their base, the 1-2 lanes where they do best.
    • Biden and Harris are B Democrats.
    • Trump and DeSantis are S Republicans.
  • The best politicians create a path for themselves through 4+ lanes.
    • Biden went B → D → C → A in 2020.
    • Trump went S → N → C → W → E in 2016.
      • Trump’s crossover appeal with C Democrats gave him the edge vs. Hillary in 2016.
        • Hillary went B → D → A powerfully but Trump’s attacks on her landed with Cs.

Chart:

Background:

This combines my analysis of the current statuses of the Democratic and Republican parties into one national model.

Part 1 was The 4 Types of Democrats:

The 4 Types of Democrats

Part 2 was The 4 Types of Republicans.

The 4 Types of Republicans

Maps:

Each state contains multiple Democratic and Republican lanes, but the simplest way to code the country is to label each state with its #1 quadrant:

As we zoom into the state level, we can further segment each county by its #1 quadrant:

Future:

Next, I need to expand my county-level typology nationwide, using a combination of general election and primary results.

Finally, I want to fine-tune my typology to the precinct-level, starting with Michigan.

This analysis is a work-in-progress. Message me @neilthanedar if you want to riff and refine on these ideas!

Published by Neil Thanedar

Neil Thanedar is an entrepreneur, investor, scientist, altruist, and author. He is the founder & CEO of Utopic, his startup studio. He is also the founder & chairman of Air to All, a 501(c)3 nonprofit medical device startup, and Labdoor, a consumer watchdog with $7M+ in funding and 20M+ users. He previously co-founded Avomeen Analytical Services, a product development and testing lab acquired for $30M+ in 2016. He has worked with community organizations since 2007 and political campaigns since 2016 to fight for better education and economic opportunities in Michigan.