Note: This is Part 1 of my political typology for US Politics. Part 2 is The 4 Types of Republicans. Part 3 is The 8 Lanes in US Politics.
After 4+ years of working in Democratic politics, there is one idea I consistently use that every Democrat should know:
There are not just two types of Democrats (progressives vs. moderates).
There are at least four types of Democrats.
- Moderate vs. Progressive is one axis.
- Establishment vs. Anti-Establishment is the other axis.
- This axis is similar to Chris Arnade’s Front Row vs. Back Row idea from his book Dignity.
The 4 Types of Democrats:
- A = Progressive Establishment
- Archetype: Ann Arbor, MI
- US: CA, OR, WA
- B = Moderate Establishment
- Archetype: Bloomfield, MI
- US: NY, MA, IL
- C = Moderate Populist
- Archetype: Calhoun, MI
- US: MI, MN, ME
- D = Progressive Populist
- Archetype: Detroit, MI
- US: MEM, BAL, ATL, STL

I got this idea while explaining the difference between Ann Arbor Democrats and Detroit Democrats during the 2018 Michigan gubernatorial election.
- ‘A’ Democrats think they’re on the same Progressive team as ‘D’ Democrats, but the two cities vote very differently.
- Most Democrats also do not spend enough time with C voters, and that’s why places like Calhoun County swung from Democratic to Republican in 2016.
Mass media tends to ignore the entire anti-establishment.
- But there are more voters (and non-voters) on that side vs. the establishment.
Another way to look at Moderate vs. Progressive is Power vs. Counter.
- Progressives often win A precincts by countering Moderate incumbents from the left.
- But this same move makes them weak in B and C precincts.
- An A → D Progressive coalition can win state and national elections with a crossover candidate with a populist message for Cs.
Successful politicians usually start with a base in one quadrant and then expand.
- Joe Biden wins elections because he looks like a B Democrat, acts like a C Democrat, and allies with D Democrats.
- Bernie Sanders won Michigan in 2016 with an A → C coalition, but he lost ground in 2020 when Biden won over his C voters.
- Biden went B → D → C in the 2020 primary, then used his anti-Trump position to win over the As for the general election.
It’s fun to map out future paths to the presidency.
- AOC could go A → D → C.
- Stacey Abrams could go D → A → B.
- Pete Buttigieg could go B → A → C.
This system also works at the state and local levels, where focusing on 1-2 quadrants can be enough to win specific elections.
- In Michigan’s 2018 gubernatorial primary, Gretchen Whitmer fundraised like a B and talked like a C, which carried her to a 52% win.
- Abdul El-Sayed struggled to expand past his A base.
- Shri Thanedar built a D base by talking to people who politicians usually ignore.
It’s also fun to think about new lanes for promising challengers.
- Abdul might have a lane to US Congress in 2022 if redistricting creates an A-heavy district around Ann Arbor.
- Shri already won his State House district in Detroit in 2020 by focusing on his D base.
- Shri is my dad and I advised him on his 2018 and 2020 campaigns, so I know this system works.
I’ve now used my 4 Types of Democrats model to study hundreds of other races at the local, state, and national levels.
It works too well for me not to share it.
The A-B-C-D shorthand also makes it a lot easier to describe the voting demographics of a specific county or district.
- For example, Wayne County is usually described as an urban monolith, but it’s really a D city surrounded by B and C suburbs.
- MI-14 is a D → B District, MI-13 is a D → C → A district, MI-12 is C → A district, etc.
I designed this political typology to assist Democratic candidates in finding their lanes.
- I also hope to show Independents where there are potential lanes to build cross-party alliances.
- When both parties are dominated by Establishment candidates, there could be a lane to unify the Anti-Establishment quadrants across both parties.
Political Typology:
Type A: Ann Arbor Democrats
- COLLEGE TOWNS + SUBURBS
- See Also: Grand Rapids, Kalamazoo
- Type A Democrats vote with their brains. They love it when their candidate “wins” a televised debate. They also tend to overestimate that candidate’s ability to build a broader coalition.
- Type A Trends:
- Population is going up and getting younger and even more Progressive.
- Type A Candidates:
- 2016 President: Sanders
- 2018 MI Governor: El-Sayed
- 2020 President: Warren → Sanders
- Dream 2024 President: AOC
Type B: Bloomfield Democrats
- WHITE-COLLAR SUBURBAN
- See Also: Lansing, Livonia, Canton
- Type B Democrats vote with their pocketbooks. They’ll vote D as long as taxes on their middle-upper class income stay the same.
- B Democrats tend to support the frontrunner. ‘Electability’, ‘likability’, etc. are code words for “who’s winning now.”
- Type B Trends:
- Population is going up and getting younger.
- Younger Bs tend to vote like As.
- 2018 Snyder → Whitmer Pivot County.
- 2018 R → D flips in MI-08, MI-11, MI-H19, MI-H20, MI-H40, MI-H41.
- Population is going up and getting younger.
- Type B Candidates:
- 2016 President: H. Clinton
- 2018 MI Governor: Whitmer
- 2020 President: Biden
- Dream 2024 President: Oprah Winfrey
Type C: Calhoun Democrats
- BLUE-COLLAR SUBURBAN
- See Also: Macomb (Clinton Twp., Sterling Heights), Monroe Counties
- Type C Democrats vote with their frustrations. They believe most politicians are corrupt, taxes are too high, and the government already has more than enough money—it just needs to spend it better.
- Immigration is the wedge issue that can turn these Cs to Republicans.
- Build The Wall is a powerful message to those on the bleeding edge of the Rust Belt.
- Type C Trends:
- Population is going down and getting older.
- Obama (+9.36%, +1.60%) → Trump (-12.46%) Pivot County.
- Type C Candidates:
- 2016 President: Sanders → Trump
- 2018 MI Governor: Whitmer
- 2020 President: Trump
- Dream 2024 President: Mark Cuban
Type D: Detroit Democrats
- BLACK-MAJORITY URBAN
- See Also: Flint, Pontiac, Saginaw
- Type D Democrats vote with their party. They’re the loyal base of the Democratic party but feel like they’re taken for granted in elections and quickly forgotten by the politicians they elect.
- Since D Democrats are loyal liberals, the assumption is that they’ll all vote Progressive, but they tend to vote for brand-name establishment candidates in Democratic primaries.
- There is a major generational gap here.
- Older Ds tend to vote like Bs. Younger Ds tend to vote like As.
- There is a major generational gap here.
- Type D Trends:
- Population is going down and getting older.
- Type D Candidates:
- 2016 President: H. Clinton
- 2018 MI Governor: S. Thanedar
- 2020 President: Biden
- Dream 2024 President: Michelle Obama
- Ds love M. Obama >> B. Obama >> B. Clinton >> H. Clinton.
- Ds still love Barack, but they LOVE Michelle.
- Ds love M. Obama >> B. Obama >> B. Clinton >> H. Clinton.
Tweet at me @neilthanedar if you want to riff and refine on these ideas!