This is Part 4 of my Political Typology series. Part 1 is The 4 Types of Democrats. Part 2 is The 4 Types of Republicans. Part 3 is The 8 Lanes in US Politics.
Most modern US politicians assume that they have to pick either the Right or Left lane.
- Even Independents like Bernie Sanders first run in their Party primary before caucusing as an Independent.
- This post will analyze alternate lanes to winning elections as an Independent.
The 4 Types of Democrats + The 4 Types of Republicans = The 8 Lanes In US Politics:

There are two possible lanes for Independents to win statewide and national elections:
- Moderate Lane:
- Unify the two moderate Democratic + two moderate Republican lanes.
- Populist Lane:
- Unify the two populist Democratic + two populist Republican lanes.
- There is no All-Establishment Lane:
- Populists outnumber the Establishment.
- The only lanes for the Establishment go through the two parties.
- Populists outnumber the Establishment.

The Moderate Independent Lane:
- Conventional wisdom assumes that this would be the best lane for an Independent.
- But, Moderates (especially Democrats) are more pragmatic and are thus usually party loyalists.
- B Democrats are the traditional base of the Democratic party.
- But, E Republicans have been underserved by Trump-era Republicans.
- Es could form the new base of this Moderate Independent Lane.
- Es tend to be economically conservative + socially liberal.
- Es could form the new base of this Moderate Independent Lane.
- But, Moderates (especially Democrats) are more pragmatic and are thus usually party loyalists.
- 2024 Candidates:
- Dwayne Johnson:
- The Rock could win the Moderate AND Democratic lanes.
- He can play in all 8 quadrants and seriously complete in the left 6.
- But 2024 is probably the wrong race for him.
- Biden/Harris dominate the B lane, which is part of his future base.
- Lane #1 (Moderate): C → N → E → B
- The Rock is my favorite long-term candidate for the Moderate Lane.
- He could win the four middle quadrants in a polarized 2028.
- The Rock is my favorite long-term candidate for the Moderate Lane.
- Lane #2 (Democrat): C → D → B → A
- Dwayne Johnson could consolidate the 4 Types of Democrats in an open primary.
- The Rock could win the Moderate AND Democratic lanes.
- Andrew Yang:
- Lane #1: C → B → E → N
- Yang got blocked by Biden from going C → B in 2020.
- Success as NYC Mayor could help Yang win over B Democrats.
- Yang got blocked by Biden from going C → B in 2020.
- Lane #2: C → N → E → B
- Yang could go All-Populist first and then crossover into the Moderate Establishment.
- Lane #1: C → B → E → N
- Mark Cuban:
- Lane #1: N → E → C → B
- Cuban’s biggest challenge with this lane would be winning over B Democrats.
- Cuban could go D instead of B for his 4th quadrant in this Lane.
- Cuban’s biggest challenge with this lane would be winning over B Democrats.
- Lane #2: N → C → E → B
- Cuban could go Independent from the start by first consolidating the Moderate Populists.
- Trump’s ability to crossover to C Democrats was why he won in 2016.
- Cuban would have a similar appeal to Cs.
- Trump’s ability to crossover to C Democrats was why he won in 2016.
- Cuban could go Independent from the start by first consolidating the Moderate Populists.
- Lane #3: N → E → S → W
- Cuban also has the potential to consolidate the 4 Types of Republicans.
- This is Cuban’s clearest path to the Presidency through the Electoral College.
- This Lane would work best against an Establishment Conservative.
- Watch out Ted Cruz.
- This Lane would work best against an Establishment Conservative.
- This is the classic lane for an outsider businessman.
- Donald Trump still holds power over this Lane.
- Ivanka would also have a strong shot at this Lane.
- Cuban would need a zero-Trump election to go national with this Lane.
- Donald Trump still holds power over this Lane.
- This is Cuban’s clearest path to the Presidency through the Electoral College.
- Cuban also has the potential to consolidate the 4 Types of Republicans.
- Lane #1: N → E → C → B
- Dwayne Johnson:

The Populist Independent Lane:
- This is the lane Donald Trump should have dominated in 2020.
- Trump’s grift was promising to be a Populist and then being a classic Republican as President.
- A true Populist would fight the leadership of both parties and form their own Independent base.
- 2024 Candidates:
- Tucker Carlson:
- Tucker already has the inside lane on S → N if no Trumps run in 2024.
- Option 1: Crossover to the Populist Left (S → N → C → D).
- Option 2: Go S → N → W → E and consolidate the 4 Types of Republicans.
- Tucker already has the inside lane on S → N if no Trumps run in 2024.
- Kanye West:
- Kanye’s 2020 looked like Trump’s 2000.
- Both tested the waters but couldn’t find a lane so they quit early.
- Kanye’s path in 2024 and beyond would need to start with consolidating the Populist Left.
- His national range would depend on his ability to crossover to the Populist Right.
- Lane: C → D → N → S
- His national range would depend on his ability to crossover to the Populist Right.
- Kanye’s 2020 looked like Trump’s 2000.
- Dave Portnoy:
- Portnoy is used to playing Counter against the media Establishment.
- His fundraising for the Barstool Fund and Emergency Press Conferences in defense of small business owners during COVID show he could be a political force if he wants to run.
- Lane: N → C → S → D
- His fundraising for the Barstool Fund and Emergency Press Conferences in defense of small business owners during COVID show he could be a political force if he wants to run.
- Portnoy is used to playing Counter against the media Establishment.
- Tucker Carlson:
Summary:

These lanes work best when running against two extreme Establishment candidates.
- It may take decades (and/or the repeal of the Electoral College) for an Independent to win nationally.
- These lanes will work now in key polarized local and state elections.
Calling All Independents:
- If you or anyone you know is considering running for office as an Independent, please let me know.
- Recruiting Independents Into Politics is on my list of the World’s Biggest Problems.
- Tweet me @NeilThanedar to start a conversation.