The 8 Lanes in US Politics

This is Part 3 of my political typology for US Politics.

• Part 1 is The 4 Types of Democrats.
• Part 2 is The 4 Types of Republicans.
• Part 4 is The 2 Types of Independents.

Contents:

• Summary
• Chart
• Background
• Maps
• Future

Summary:

4 Types of Democrats + 4 Types of Republicans = The 8 Lanes in US Politics.

• Every good politician has their base, the 1-2 lanes where they do best.
  • Biden and Harris are B Democrats.
  • Trump and DeSantis are S Republicans.
• The best politicians create a path for themselves through 4+ lanes.
  • Biden went B → D → C → A in 2020.
  • Trump went S → N → C → W → E in 2016.
    • Trump’s crossover appeal with C Democrats gave him the edge vs. Hillary in 2016.
      • Hillary went B → D → A powerfully but Trump’s attacks on her landed with Cs.

Chart:

Background:

This combines my analysis of the current statuses of the Democratic and Republican parties into one national model.

Part 1 was The 4 Types of Democrats:

Part 2 was The 4 Types of Republicans.

Maps:

Each state contains multiple Democratic and Republican lanes, but the simplest way to code the country is to label each state with its #1 quadrant:

As we zoom into the state level, we can further segment each county by its #1 quadrant:

Future:

Next, I need to expand my county-level typology nationwide, using a combination of general election and primary results.

Finally, I want to fine-tune my typology to the precinct-level, starting with Michigan.

This analysis is a work-in-progress. Message me @neilthanedar if you want to riff and refine on these ideas!