Note: This is Part 2 of my Political Typology series.
- Part 1 is The 4 Types of Democrats.
- Part 3 is The 8 Lanes in US Politics.
- Part 4 is The 2 Types of Independents.
Contents:
Summary:
My regional model for Republicans:
- East = Moderate Establishment
- West = Conservative Establishment
- South = Conservative Populist
- North = Moderate Populist
Chart:
Map:
Legend:
- E = Moderate Establishment
- Archetype: East
- US Examples: VA, NC, SC
- MI Examples: Oakland, Livingston
- Frontrunners: Nikki Haley, Tim Scott, Mike Pence
- Outside Shot: Ivanka Trump
- Also Rans: Chris Christie, Marco Rubio, Larry Hogan, Rick Scott
- Archetype: East
- W = Conservative Establishment
- Archetype: West
- US Examples: UT, NE, KS
- MI Examples: Kent, Ottawa
- Frontrunners: Ted Cruz, Tom Cotton
- Outside Shot: Mitt Romney
- Also Rans: Mike Pompeo, Mike Lee
- Archetype: West
- S = Conservative Populist
- Archetype: South
- US Examples: AL, TN, AR
- MI Examples: Macomb, St. Clair
- Frontrunners: Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis
- Outside Shot: Tucker Carlson, Vivek Ramaswamy, Donald Trump Jr.
- Also Rans: Greg Abbott, Josh Hawley, Dan Crenshaw
- Archetype: South
- N = Moderate Populist
- Archetype: North
- US Examples: OH, IN, IA
- MI Examples: Genesee, Upper Peninsula
- Frontrunners: Kristi Noem, Elise Stefanik
- Outside Shot: Doug Burgum, John James
- Also Rans: Mike DeWine, Ben Sasse
- Archetype: North
Analysis:
The political and media establishment chronically underrepresent the anti-establishment (populist) quadrants in both parties.
- Donald Trump won in 2016 because he focused on the anti-establishment quadrants across both parties.
- Trump first won over the Republican S → N lanes.
- Then he crossed-over to the Democratic C (moderate anti-establishment) lane.
- The promise and delivery of conservative judges won over the Republican W lane.
- Trump first won over the Republican S → N lanes.
- Joe Biden won in 2020 because he won back the Democratic C quadrant and reunified the 4 Types of Democrats.
Projections:
- Donald J. Trump enters 2024 as the frontrunner for the Republican nomination:
- He's still the favorite in his top three lanes: S → N → W
- Jr. could copy his dad's lane, but he would be worse at it in every quadrant.
- Ivanka's lane would be the opposite: E → W → N → S.
- Ivanka Trump could powerfully unify all four Republican quadrants through a combination of her and her father's lanes.
- He's still the favorite in his top three lanes: S → N → W
- The other Republican frontrunners are all currently limited to 1-2 lanes.
- Establishment Lanes:
- Pence: E → W
- Cruz: W → S?
- Haley: E → W?
- Scott: E → W?
- Populist Lanes:
- DeSantis: S → W
- Carlson: S → N
- Noem: N → W
- Hawley: N → S
- Establishment Lanes:
This is Part 2 of my Political Typology series.
- Part 1 was The 4 Types of Democrats.
- Part 3 is The 8 Lanes in US Politics.
- Part 4 is The 2 Types of Independents.
Tweet at me @neilthanedar if you want to riff and refine on these ideas!